The Property Expert's Bible
I have been asked whether now is a good time to invest in the property
market, and whether my book on the subject will help. I'm going to
answer this question in two parts over the course of a couple of blogs.
Here is the first part.
First, my big book on the real estate business (http://www.property.org.uk/unique/book/index2.html
help you no end. Most people will teach you all sorts of
nonsensical rubbish which has nothing at all to do with how the
property markets move, or how to take advantage of those moves. I've
studied these markets for decades, and I've actively traded property
moves since the late sixties both in the UK and in Europe. I am not
aware of a single professional writer who has survived that length of
time. I have survived, and I am still ahead of the game. The reason for
that is that my analysis works. It is scientific, and has been tested
for nearly fifty years.
As with any business you will benefit from a guide book. I think my
guide book is the best there is (naturally), but the reason it is the
best is that it has proven to be right for decades.
There are various think tanks that are paid good money to provide an
analysis of the property markets on an annual basis. I have never come
across a single one that's got it right. The reason is that they look
at the wrong indicators. You will find analysis of the number of
housing starts, the number of foreigners entering the market, and all
sorts of indicators which have absolutely no effect on house prices.
In order to justify the price they charge for their analysis they have
to prove they've covered every angle. But then they get it wrong. It's
simple: garbage in = garbage out.
The housing market was booming towards the end of the eighties. By 1990
scarcely a house sold in the UK. Where had all those immigrants gone?
Had families stopped splitting up almost over-night? Had housing starts
gone through the roof? Of course not. They were all irrelevant issues,
and you need to understand what the real issues are. My book will help
you do that.
Second, there is a time to do things and a time not to do them. I would
not advise a novice to get into the property market at the moment.
Prices are high. Not everywhere of course, as you could buy in many
places in Lancashire or around Liverpool for less than £40,000.
But there are other issues you need to address.
Again, these issues are addressed in my book. Here are just a few. What
do you know about how a tenancy works? How good are you at dealing with
people? How good are you at dealing with housing problems such as
faulty plumbing? Or do you have a fixer-upper able to do these things
for you? Can you keep an eye on things when the property is 200 miles
away? And so on. In fact, what about a basic question like: How do you
value a house? I bet no-one's ever taught you that, but I can.
Just as important is the issue of finance. What do you know about debt,
borrowing, money management, and so on, and how these matters change
with the changing economic and political scenario? In short, is it a
good thing to get involved in property investment in the middle of a
depression, and a seemingly chronic currency crisis?
Third, are there easier and more productive ways of making money?
Let me give you a week or so to think about the above, and I will write
part two of this next weekend.
One thing is clear, you will have a good understanding of how housing
markets work if you read my book. It is essential reading. There is
nothing else remotely like it on the market. Dont invest in real estate
if you haven't read it.
Whether you do put your money into real estate is another issue
altogether. I'll address that point next week. Meanwhile here is a link
to my book on real estate investing. You ought to read it.