This is our trailor for the Professional Property Investor's Newsletter. The best bits have been cut out, naturally. However, you can receive monthly updates for the low price of £10. That covers you for a full year's worth of bulletins. The first one alone has got to be worth that because it tells you how to make money in property in a few very easy steps.


Investing in real estate:   Where are we now?


What do we need to know in order to know whether what we are planning is likely to turn out well? And what investments do we recommend?

In the property world there are two very important sets of metrics. These monthly updates seek to cover both sets as best we can.

First, there is a set of well-proven sayings which we go against at our peril. Let's remind ourselves of what they are.

  • Never buy into a situation you dont properly understand
  • Never buy into an area which is too far away to manage.
  • Never buy into a falling market.
  • If you aren't very good at maths, dont invest in real estate at all.
  • If you aren't very good at management, then .........
  • Try to avoid ..........
  • Dont buy property in a country where ..........
  • Always sell before the ..........
  • The last stage of any market rise is ..........
  • Try to buy when interest rates are ..........
  • House prices rising without a rise in incomes or ..........
  • It is not true that house prices always ..........
  • Beware of childish chart interpretations. Projecting three ..........
  • When it is cheaper to rent ..........
  • People will only spend ..........
  • House prices fluctuate about a ..........
  • If you are forced to sell ..........
..........

Does what happened in the above chart look normal to you? ..........

* * * * *

There are situations that you need to beware, and routines that you need to know.


  • With regard to a mortgage: a 2% rise ..........
  • Real estate is basically a ..........
  • Remember there are two good reasons to own investment property. The first is ..........
  • You should not consider your ..........
  • Most people buy high and are forced to ..........
  • The property market is driven by one thing, and one thing only..........
  • Houses will only be bought when ..........
  • If the average wage is going ..........
  • If interest rates are ..........
  • If prices have fallen a long way, then they ..........
  • Real estate prices provide a lagging ..........
  • House price rises lag the ..........
  • A trend may continue, but it will only continue ..........
  • Prices will get too high, and when they do, they will ..........
  • Once the reverse at the top has taken place ..........

In order to comply with these rules and guidelines we need to know where we are. Let's have a look.


1    The long term trend in house prices. (This will tell us whether houses are above their long term trend or below.)

House prices increased by 0.6% in
..........

..........
..........
..........

House sales in England and Wales in October
..........

..........

Now let's put that in context: Here's a chart showing the
..........

..........

Quite simply prices
..........

This is what is happening now:

..........

The annual rate of increase is higher than
..........

Here is the chart:

..........

House prices should not be
..........

2    The unemployment figures. (Are a significant number of folks shut out of the market?)

Unemployment is
..........

..........

And here's one for the USA:

..........


3    The interest rate. (If it is rising, you should not be buying. If it is falling, that is a good sign.)

Interest rates are currently
..........

..........
..........
..........

..........

On the other hand, Japan has
..........

But..... look at the Japanese property chart for the past 30 years.....yes, 30 years!:

..........

4    The affordability index. (If it is high, then prices wont have much room to increase. If it is low they may go up, or may well stay low.)

Affordability indices around the world are showing
..........

Have a look at the following tables:

..........

This chart is screaming that prices
..........

..........

..........
..........
..........


This last statistic is very important. Let us relate it to the UK.

When people in London pay
..........

What this means in a nutshell is that once people in busy metropolitan areas are
..........

In more rural areas, and areas of lower income, expect the figure to be
..........

Knowing this will help you know when to sell.

..........


5    Average wages. (They need to be rising to support rising house prices.)

Here's a chart showing Spain, Ireland, Britain, Japan, and the US.

..........

6    What is happening to rents? And how do they relate to purchase prices? Which is cheaper, to pay rent or pay for a mortgage?

This is something
..........
..........
..........
..........

7    How much overhang is there? For instance, how long will it take for the backlog of properties already on the market to sell? If there is a large overhang, then prices will be depressed until that overhang is mopped up.

These statistics are easy to come by in some countries, and almost impossible in others. There is estimated to be
..........

The number of properties for sale in Spain is
..........

In the Algarve there are
..........

8    How is the general economy doing? Up? Down? Going nowhere? Or dont know? You need to know.

..........

For interest, here is a chart showing average
..........

..........

For example, a house in the UK where the average wage is $40,000 should cost
..........

This is important. Go local. Dont get ripped off by
..........

Remember one important thing. You may be looking at
..........

9    How is the currency doing?

There are phenomenal changes in
..........

Because five of those countries are in ..........

Conclusion

We are in
..........

Next month I will update these figures, but
..........

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© The Property Organisation 2010