Investing in real estate: Where are we
now?
What do we need to know in
order to know whether what we are planning is likely to turn out well?
And what investments do we recommend?
In the property world there
are two very important sets of metrics. These monthly updates seek to
cover both sets as best we can.
First, there is a set of
well-proven sayings which we go against at our peril. Let's remind
ourselves of what they are.
- Never buy into a
situation you dont properly understand
- Never buy into an area
which is too far away to manage.
- Never buy into a
falling market.
- If you aren't very good
at maths, dont invest in real estate at all.
- If you aren't very good
at management, then .........
- Dont buy property in a
country where ..........
- Always sell before the ..........
- The last stage of any
market rise is ..........
- Try to buy when
interest rates are ..........
- House prices rising
without a rise in incomes or ..........
- It is not true that
house prices always ..........
- Beware of childish
chart interpretations. Projecting three ..........
- When it is cheaper to
rent ..........
- People will only spend ..........
- House prices fluctuate
about a ..........
- If you are forced to
sell ..........
..........
Does what happened in the
above chart
look normal to you? ..........
* * * * *
There are situations that you
need to beware, and routines that you need to know.
- With regard to a
mortgage: a 2% rise ..........
- Real estate is
basically a ..........
- Remember there are two
good reasons to own investment property. The first is ..........
- You should not consider
your ..........
- Most people buy high
and are forced to ..........
- The property market is
driven by one thing, and one thing only..........
- Houses will only be
bought when ..........
- If the average wage is
going ..........
- If interest rates are ..........
- If prices have fallen a
long way, then they ..........
- Real estate prices
provide a lagging ..........
- House price rises lag
the ..........
- A trend may continue,
but it will only continue ..........
- Prices will get too
high, and when they do, they will ..........
- Once the reverse at the
top has taken place ..........
In order to comply with these
rules and guidelines we need to know where we are. Let's have a look.
1 The long term trend in
house prices. (This will tell us whether houses are above their
long term trend or below.)
House prices increased by 0.6% in ..........
..........
..........
..........
House sales in England and Wales in October ..........
..........
Now let's put that in context: Here's a chart showing the ..........
..........
Quite simply prices ..........
This is what is happening now:
..........
The annual rate of increase is higher than ..........
Here is the chart:
..........
House prices should not be ..........
2 The unemployment
figures. (Are a significant number of folks shut out of the
market?)
Unemployment is ..........
..........
And here's one for the USA:
..........
3 The interest rate.
(If it is rising, you should not be buying. If it is falling, that is a
good sign.)
Interest rates are currently ..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
On the other hand, Japan has ..........
But..... look at the Japanese property chart for the past 30
years.....yes, 30 years!:
..........
4 The affordability index.
(If it is high, then prices wont have much room to increase. If it is
low they may go up, or may well stay low.)
Affordability indices around the world are showing ..........
Have a look at the
following tables:
..........
This chart is screaming that
prices ..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
This last statistic is very important. Let us relate it to the UK.
When people in London pay ..........
What this means in a nutshell is that once people in busy metropolitan
areas are ..........
In more rural areas, and areas of lower income, expect the figure to be
..........
Knowing this will help you know when to sell.
..........
5 Average wages.
(They need to be rising to support rising house prices.)
Here's a chart showing Spain, Ireland, Britain, Japan, and the US.
..........
6 What is happening to
rents? And how do they relate to purchase prices? Which is
cheaper, to pay rent or pay for a mortgage?
This is something ..........
..........
..........
..........
7 How much overhang is there? For
instance, how long will it take for the backlog of properties already
on the market to sell? If there is a large overhang, then prices will
be depressed until that overhang is mopped up.
These statistics are easy to come by in some countries, and almost
impossible in others. There is estimated to be ..........
The number of properties for sale in Spain is ..........
In the Algarve there are ..........
8 How is the general
economy doing? Up? Down? Going nowhere? Or dont know? You need
to know.
..........
For interest, here is a chart showing average ..........
..........
For example, a house in the UK where the average wage is $40,000 should
cost ..........
This is important. Go local. Dont get ripped off by ..........
Remember one important thing. You may be looking at ..........
9 How is the currency
doing?
There are phenomenal changes in ..........
Because five of those countries are in ..........
Conclusion
We are in ..........
Next month I will update these figures, but ..........
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