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A European Crack-up

A comment on my last piece about the euro-zone asks: "Any thoughts about Europe after a (full-blown?) euro crisis and break-up?"
Good grief! I don't know. Haven't a clue. I suppose we could have a glance at some options, but what happens will probably be something else altogether.
Option one: Nothing changes for the near future. I think that is likely to be a ghastly option because the longer things go on as they are, the worse the mess will become, and the more antagonistic various governments and populations will become towards each other.
Option two: Italy will pull the plug on the euro. That will crack up the currency, and all bets are off as to what happens next, but there really are only three options.
1: Other countries threaten to follow suit and the euro splits in two as the northern countries wash their hands of southern Europe. How that pans out is impossible to say. That fault-line I mentioned in a previous blog is very very messy.
That could lead to Germany sticking two fingers up to the whole shebang. I think that is unlikely. They are more likely to lead the way into a northern euro.
2: The euro fails completely. IMHO that is very unlikely. It is more likely to morph into the Hanseatic League Mark 2, which itself then expands a bit more. That will only work if the currency part of any union is run on Central American lines.
3: In May the whole political landscape changes either slightly or even drastically, leading to a kind of drawn-out stalemate with just about every country in the zone breaking the rules, but staying put and refusing to compromise until either option three comes into play, or Germany pushes for option 2.2.
Option three: The politicians go hard-line and push for full Federalism. That is likely to lead to a European Cold War, or outright fascism leading to another fighting war. I fear this option, as ought everybody, but the way things are going at the moment, this option is a strong contender.
You are now going to ask me which option I think is most likely.
The real answer is "I don't know". I'm tempted to go for 2.2. At this stage it is an unreasonable question. We'd all like to know where this mess is leading, but life isn't like that.

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