A European Crack-up
A comment on my last piece about the
euro-zone asks: "Any thoughts about Europe after a
(full-blown?) euro crisis and break-up?"
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Good grief! I don't know. Haven't a clue. I suppose we could
have a glance at some options, but what happens will probably
be something else altogether.
Option one: Nothing changes for the near future. I
think that is likely to be a ghastly option because the longer
things go on as they are, the worse the mess will become, and
the more antagonistic various governments and populations will
become towards each other.
Option two: Italy will pull the plug on the euro. That
will crack up the currency, and all bets are off as to what
happens next, but there really are only three options.
1: Other countries threaten to follow suit and the euro
splits in two as the northern countries wash their hands of
southern Europe. How that pans out is impossible to say. That
fault-line I mentioned in a previous blog is very very messy.
That could lead to Germany sticking two fingers up to the
whole shebang. I think that is unlikely. They are more likely
to lead the way into a northern euro.
2: The euro fails completely. IMHO that is very
unlikely. It is more likely to morph into the Hanseatic League
Mark 2, which itself then expands a bit more. That will only
work if the currency part of any union is run on Central
3: In May the whole political landscape changes either
slightly or even drastically, leading to a kind of drawn-out
stalemate with just about every country in the zone breaking
the rules, but staying put and refusing to compromise until
either option three comes into play, or Germany pushes for
Option three: The politicians go hard-line and push for
full Federalism. That is likely to lead to a European Cold
War, or outright fascism leading to another fighting war. I
fear this option, as ought everybody, but the way things are
going at the moment, this option is a strong contender.
You are now going to ask me which option I think is most
The real answer is "I don't know". I'm tempted to go for 2.2.
At this stage it is an unreasonable question. We'd all like to
know where this mess is leading, but life isn't like that.