After Brexit
For a long time I have been claiming that
Brexit is to a large extent a non-event, and much verbiage has
been spilt to not much effect. Having lived in continental
Europe much of my life I have seen very few impediments to my
way of life over the decades as political whims slip and slide
around with much noise but very little else.
I accept there will be changes, but whatever those changes
are, the important ones will always come with caveats and
codicils which are likely to make the end result much the same
as before.
The UK tax payer will no longer have to fund an extortionately
expensive secretariat in Brussels and Strasburg. The country
will no longer have to give up its common law in favour of
extensive statute law. It will no longer have to suffer the
loss of its prime money-making export to the city of
Frankfurt, and it will no longer be forced to join the euro
with its massive inconsistencies and disastrous banking
shambles. And the country will no longer be forced into a
strict trading regime but will be able to negotiate other
trade treaties. All of this is good news.
The downsides for most people concern movement of people,
reciprocal health arrangements, and so on. Will these change?
I recently travelled across Europe and found that so far
nothing has changed whatever. I have always been able to
travel where I liked in Europe, and that hasn't changed, and
won't change.
The countries I have visited and live in part time have all
stated that they won't change their regulations if the UK
reciprocates. The UK will no doubt do so. Why not?
Portugal has already let it be known that there will be no
change to travel, work permits, and has even offered health
care arrangements. Of course they have. They can't afford the
Brits to go home. Their economy would crash. As I have always
said, ultimately, common sense will prevail.
Spain will soon follow suit. There are several million UK
nationals living in Spain. If they are disadvantaged they will
have to leave. That will crash the Spanish economy. That won't
happen. Someone will wring a few necks, and life will go on.
Now the UK is officially out, the EU has lost all negotiating
power.
Why?
The answer is simple. The EU is broke, their banking system is
on the rocks, their economies are stagnant or in recession,
and many of their political parties are in disarray. There is
also social unrest across the region. Portugal is beginning to
panic about boat people coming from Africa. When I was last in
Italy that situation was way out of hand. Germany has a
massive social problem with all the refugees (or is that guest
workers part 2?) in the country. And how can Germany have a
proper export situation when under the T2 rules they have to
send money back to the countries (mainly Italy) that are
buying their goods? The economic structure is unworkable. And
they no longer have the UK's annual sub. More money printing
is on the way. Oh dear.
I am not going to give advice, but I shall be seeking to quit
my business in the EU. I think this is the beginning of the
end. The only way things can carry on is if everyone goes into
pretend mode, prints ridiculous amounts of money, and hopes
for the best.
Things could stagger on for years in much the same way, but
there are greener fields that are held together by less sticky
tape.
Has anyone travelled around Europe recently? I was intrigued,
and quite shocked to see how Britain is booming compared to
the continent. I was in London last week. The cranes quite
took my breath away. I am also involved in various projects
around the country, from Manchester to Sheffield, and even
further afield. It seems to be all systems go.
There used to be some alternative barometers that were
supposed to show the economic health of a nation. One was the
price of a mars bar. Another was the price of a cup of coffee
in Grand Central Station related to similar prices in other
countries. I also remember the Crane Index. The number of
cranes on the skyline is a great indicator of a country in
expansion mode, and that country is the UK.
I still maintain the biggest problem with the UK is the
weather. I shan't be back, but I cant think of a better place
for my investments at the moment. I remember Billy Connelly in
an interview on his return from Australia telling us his son
complained: "Daddy, why is the sky so low?" I know just what
he meant.