The Unique Property
Changing World Alliances
I dont like to do predictions, but we live
in strange times and I want to make a couple of points.
I dont think I have ever seen such a divided world as today.
It doesnít matter in which direction I look, I see chaos.
The United States is tearing itself apart. That may be a good
thing because it is possible that leads to a wake-up call. The
legal system in that country is at its lowest ebb. The war
machine is at its most dangerous, and the country is bankrupt
already, and I believe we are about to see what may turn out
to be one more attempt to kick the can even further down the
road. I canít see how the current administration can fail to
go into one more frenzy of money printing which will in all
probability destroy the dollar.
Everyone is looking for a collapse. I have witnessed three
major market collapses. Every one came out of a bright blue
sky. Euphoria was everywhere, until something cracked, and the
whole edifice came tumbling down.
These days everyone is predicting a market crash. In all
probability that means we wont get one. If there is a massive
money printing burst, the markets will surge again, and that
is what I think will be the point at which something will
prick the euphoria, and there will be a massive collapse.
In short, I am holding my stock positions. I note they are
generally rising. I will be watching those positions on a
weekly basis. I may tighten that watch, but I think we have
one more burst higher still to come. The dollar will remain
king for the time being, but it is certainly living on
Normally one would expect the next major currency to move in
and take over, except that every major currency looks to be a
disaster. Except maybe the rouble, but that is not yet ready,
and it needs one extra system to be in place before it can
seriously start to rival other currencies. But I will discuss
that in a future blog.
Letís now have a look at the second largest economy in the
I have long thought that external threats will not topple the
CCP. The roots of its demise will be in the proletariat, and
they are getting very edgy. Once again, there is something
lacking. Usually there is an alternative source of power ready
to move in. At the moment in China there isnít one. That means
there would have to be another revolution and a strong man
will no doubt rise to command. What that will achieve is
The real problem in China is that it has built a society on
their own industrial revolution. Unfortunately, that has come
to a sudden halt. Not only that, but it has juddered not at
the end of a period of success, but during a serious financial
setback, and widespread social unrest.
So we have the USA about to go broke while China is going
Then there is that disaster area, Western Europe. The whole
area is going bust at an alarming pace. It is controlled by
people who are either brain dead, or deliberately setting out
to destroy the continent. Most countries are broke. All the
countries, except in the far north, are seriously
over-populated, and making themselves even more
over-populated. They cant, or wont, produce their own energy.
They cant, or wont produce their own food. Importing both is
enormously expensive. In short, the countries of Europe are
being squeezed to death. Itís painful to watch.
* * * * *
Militarily speaking there are three major
powers, and a couple of minor powers in the world. In tier one
are the USA, China, and Russia, while in tier two we have
England and France.
The USA is doing to itself what, under Reagan they did to
Russia: using the military complex, and a plethora of minor
wars, to bankrupt themselves. At least Reagan sought to
bankrupt Russia, and succeeded. The current political regime
in the USA is bankrupting themselves. At least I hope this
means we will soon be seeing the collapse of Nato due to lack
of funds. That will mean the demilitarisation of Europe
roughly seventy years after it should have been demilitarised.
China has a military problem. War is not going to be a popular
option. I dont know about Russia. But I happen to think that
it is about time the world started taking a view on war, and
decided that trying to live with each other is a better
I honestly think the risk of world war is low. Those who have
the final call know full well that any world war can only lead
to a devastation of the planet, which means destroying
Politically we have three options. There is the western
alliance, which is beginning to look exceedingly shaky.
Without Europe, the American hegemony is over. And the
countries of Europe are reeling from the strike on the
Nordstream pipeline and its fallout. Australia and New Zealand
are caught between two rival powers, and they are not about to
go over to China, but they are clearly not as happy with the
USA as they used to be.
Then there is the BRICS alliance. That has grown from five to
a probable forty-one in the space of a year. In other words it
has become BRICS+, and represents a majority of the world
economy and about two-thirds of the world population.
How far and how fast this will develop is another matter. The
three super powers at the centre of the alliance, Russia China
and India, are not exactly great chums. The new trading
currency that is proposed is also not getting off to a great
start, although Russia and Saudi Arabia (the energy kings of
the planet) are going to have an increasing amount of
What this will will lead to is anybodyís guess. But it is a
good thing that at least we have an alternative to the
hegemony of the United States, which has been causing far too
much bother since the second world war.
Then, of course, there is the rest of the world, which would
probably prefer to pretend there isnít a problem.
Letís leave things there for the moment. Next week I will try
to do the impossible and suggest some ways to cope with what
is undoubtedly a veritable vortex of conflicts.