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Changing World Alliances

I dont like to do predictions, but we live in strange times and I want to make a couple of points.

I dont think I have ever seen such a divided world as today. It doesnít matter in which direction I look, I see chaos.

The United States is tearing itself apart. That may be a good thing because it is possible that leads to a wake-up call. The legal system in that country is at its lowest ebb. The war machine is at its most dangerous, and the country is bankrupt already, and I believe we are about to see what may turn out to be one more attempt to kick the can even further down the road. I canít see how the current administration can fail to go into one more frenzy of money printing which will in all probability destroy the dollar.

Everyone is looking for a collapse. I have witnessed three major market collapses. Every one came out of a bright blue sky. Euphoria was everywhere, until something cracked, and the whole edifice came tumbling down.

These days everyone is predicting a market crash. In all probability that means we wont get one. If there is a massive money printing burst, the markets will surge again, and that is what I think will be the point at which something will prick the euphoria, and there will be a massive collapse.

In short, I am holding my stock positions. I note they are generally rising. I will be watching those positions on a weekly basis. I may tighten that watch, but I think we have one more burst higher still to come. The dollar will remain king for the time being, but it is certainly living on borrowed time.

Normally one would expect the next major currency to move in and take over, except that every major currency looks to be a disaster. Except maybe the rouble, but that is not yet ready, and it needs one extra system to be in place before it can seriously start to rival other currencies. But I will discuss that in a future blog.

Letís now have a look at the second largest economy in the world, China.

I have long thought that external threats will not topple the CCP. The roots of its demise will be in the proletariat, and they are getting very edgy. Once again, there is something lacking. Usually there is an alternative source of power ready to move in. At the moment in China there isnít one. That means there would have to be another revolution and a strong man will no doubt rise to command. What that will achieve is anybodyís guess.

The real problem in China is that it has built a society on their own industrial revolution. Unfortunately, that has come to a sudden halt. Not only that, but it has juddered not at the end of a period of success, but during a serious financial setback, and widespread social unrest.

So we have the USA about to go broke while China is going broke.

Then there is that disaster area, Western Europe. The whole area is going bust at an alarming pace. It is controlled by people who are either brain dead, or deliberately setting out to destroy the continent. Most countries are broke. All the countries, except in the far north, are seriously over-populated, and making themselves even more over-populated. They cant, or wont, produce their own energy. They cant, or wont produce their own food. Importing both is enormously expensive. In short, the countries of Europe are being squeezed to death. Itís painful to watch.

* * * * *

Militarily speaking there are three major powers, and a couple of minor powers in the world. In tier one are the USA, China, and Russia, while in tier two we have England and France.

The USA is doing to itself what, under Reagan they did to Russia: using the military complex, and a plethora of minor wars, to bankrupt themselves. At least Reagan sought to bankrupt Russia, and succeeded. The current political regime in the USA is bankrupting themselves. At least I hope this means we will soon be seeing the collapse of Nato due to lack of funds. That will mean the demilitarisation of Europe roughly seventy years after it should have been demilitarised.

China has a military problem. War is not going to be a popular option. I dont know about Russia. But I happen to think that it is about time the world started taking a view on war, and decided that trying to live with each other is a better option.

I honestly think the risk of world war is low. Those who have the final call know full well that any world war can only lead to a devastation of the planet, which means destroying themselves.

Politically we have three options. There is the western alliance, which is beginning to look exceedingly shaky. Without Europe, the American hegemony is over. And the countries of Europe are reeling from the strike on the Nordstream pipeline and its fallout. Australia and New Zealand are caught between two rival powers, and they are not about to go over to China, but they are clearly not as happy with the USA as they used to be.

Then there is the BRICS alliance. That has grown from five to a probable forty-one in the space of a year. In other words it has become BRICS+, and represents a majority of the world economy and about two-thirds of the world population.

How far and how fast this will develop is another matter. The three super powers at the centre of the alliance, Russia China and India, are not exactly great chums. The new trading currency that is proposed is also not getting off to a great start, although Russia and Saudi Arabia (the energy kings of the planet) are going to have an increasing amount of financial clout.

What this will will lead to is anybodyís guess. But it is a good thing that at least we have an alternative to the hegemony of the United States, which has been causing far too much bother since the second world war.

Then, of course, there is the rest of the world, which would probably prefer to pretend there isnít a problem.

Letís leave things there for the moment. Next week I will try to do the impossible and suggest some ways to cope with what is undoubtedly a veritable vortex of conflicts.

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